2011 Market Outlook

Monday, December 20 2010

Further Upside into 2011

The chart below from Deutsche Bank is a reminder of the road we have travelled and compares it to previous cycles.

The outlook into 2011 looks reasonably good but will be dependent on the following:

  1. Confirmation the US recovery is continuing to take hold. We will be looking for employment to finally show signs of improvement. The early signs are good with corporate balance sheets in good shape and the consumer spending this Christmas and even some signs that housing is finding a bottom.
  2. Chinese growth being maintained. The risk to China is inflation and their ability to rein inflation without impacting growth. To date they are managing this and also transitioning to greater domestic consumption. We expect some ebb and flow in the Chinese data next year.
  3. The earnings cycle improving for domestic companies. Interest rates are on hold now and the currency is unlikely to push too much higher so the headwinds which impacted a range of stocks will ease in 2011. The important driver for a range of domestic companies will be a range of large CAPEX projects such as coal seam methane and LNG projects in WA. The income created from these projects should trickle through the whole economy. The thing to watch will be the tightness in the employment market particularly with Unions. This could lead to some inflationary pressure.

Separately Managed Accounts (SMA), Individually Managed Accounts (IMA) and Portfolio Management

 

Disclaimer

The website is owned and operated by DNR AFSL Pty Ltd (AFSL 301658) (“Dalton Nicol Reid”) having its registered office at Level 14, 388 Queen Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000.

The content of this website is intended for Australian residents only (RG 162.44).

* Whilst perhaps not strictly an Internet Discussion Site (“IDS”) as defined in Regulatory Guideline RG 162 as investors and or other third parties are unable to leave comments on the site, the information on this site is so provided being mindful of the requirements and intended purposes of RG 162 and Consultation Paper 104.

Information about ASIC IDS guidelines and other relevant information about investing may be obtained from the ASIC website at:

https://www.fido.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/AD09-33+ASIC+reviews+policy+on+internet+discussion+sites?openDocument.

 

Not Investment Advice

Postings are, at best, general information, not professional investment advice prepared by taking into account any individual circumstances and needs of particular investors.Therefore, before acting on the basis of what is said in a posting, you should:

  1. consider consulting a licensed adviser (ASIC’™s website at www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers); and
  2. visit ASIC’™s consumer website at www.fido.gov.au for general guidance about investing.

GENERAL

Dalton Nicol Reid, its associated entities, and directors and staff, may hold positions in companies, or the debt or derivative securities of companies, either on their own account or for the portfolios of investors, that are the subjects of postings on this website.

Dalton Nicol Reid is a member of FOS (https://www.fos.org.au/centric/home_page.jsp) which is an ASIC approved external complaints resolution scheme (RG 162.46).

The information posted on this site by Dalton Nicol Reid will be maintained and kept by Dalton Nicol Reid consistent with the requirement of RG 162.62 and* Consultation Paper 104* for a minimum of two years and may be made available to ASIC.

 

Accuracy and Currency of Information

Dalton Nicol Reid, its officers, employees, agents and associates believe that the information and material provided on this web site is correct at the time of compilation but do not warrant the accuracy or currency of that information and material. You should carefully check the date of compilation of the information and material (where relevant) to determine its currency. Save for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, Dalton Nicol Reid, its officers, employees, agents and associates disclaim all responsibility for any loss or damage which any person may suffer from reliance on the information and material on this web site or any opinion, conclusion or recommendation in the information and material whether the loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence on the part of Dalton Nicol Reid (including its officers, employees, agents and associates) or otherwise.

 

Loss or Damage to your Systems

Dalton Nicol Reid will not be liable for any loss or damage from any cause to your system or web site, or to people linking to this material from your web site, caused by or in connection with the use or link to this material. Any such loss or damage will be your responsibility. Dalton Nicol Reid advises you to take your own precautions in relation to protecting your system or web site from malfunction or viruses.

 

Copyright

Copyright in all the material, works, software, design, text, graphics and code contained on or used to produce the web site and in the information and material and in its arrangement or layout, is owned or licensed by Dalton Nicol Reid or its associates unless otherwise indicated. Other than as permitted below, your use of anything in which Dalton Nicol Reid or its associates own copyright is governed by the copyright laws of Australia and its international treaties with other countries.

You are permitted to save or print a copy of the web site solely for your own information, research or study, but only if you do not modify the copy and you include the copyright notice “© Dalton Nicol Reid Pty Ltd. ” on the copy. You may not copy, publish, distribute, create works from or commercially exploit the content of this web site for any other purpose.

Print this article