Thursday, October 28 2010
There are a few factors driving the market at present. The most prominent is speculation regarding the size and impact of quantitative easing. To us much of the trading seems speculative it is based on a belief that the quant easing will not have much impact on the US but will flow into and drive investment in emerging markets. Hence the strong buying in commodities, A$ and resources. Over the last 3 days we have heard everything from shock and awe decision (i.e. +$1 trillion) to likely to underwhelm (i.e. <$700bn). The bulls won on Monday and that had the market riled up, and now the bears are gaining momentum with their thesis that there is no need for big QE2 given: 1) manufacturing orders picking up, 2) China flexing its muscles on currency devaluation concerns, and 3) company profits picking up with 85% have beat this earnings season.
The sooner this speculation washes through the market the better as it will allow a focus on fundamentals. In this respect we note:
- US Reporting season has been strong as noted above. This is somewhat surprising given the softer economic data in July and August but is consistent with a recovering economy.
- M&A activity is picking up (Perpetual, ASX, Potash). We have been arguing for some time that we could expect a pick up and continue to see the deployment of corporate balance sheets as a key driver of activity and markets.
- Bank results have surprised on the upside to date. Banks are still lobbying to increase rates. We have been surprised they have not moved and we are more positioned for those banks which will benefit most (WBC and CBA). We still think a move is likely but if it is not done by mid November it will not be happening.
- Offset by some downgrades in the market especially for companies earning US$. We continue to receive feedback regarding a soft consumer and softer housing market. This feedback is at odds with most economists who continue to expect a consumer pick up and a pick up in interest rates. We think interest rates are on hold or should be on hold until after Christmas. All the interest rate sensitive sectors are soft. We will see next Tuesday whether the RBA agrees with us.
Separately Managed Accounts (SMA), Individually Managed Accounts (IMA) and Portfolio Management
The website is owned and operated by DNR AFSL Pty Ltd (AFSL 301658) (“Dalton Nicol Reid”) having its registered office at Level 14, 388 Queen Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000.
The content of this website is intended for Australian residents only (RG 162.44).
* Whilst perhaps not strictly an Internet Discussion Site (“IDS”) as defined in Regulatory Guideline RG 162 as investors and or other third parties are unable to leave comments on the site, the information on this site is so provided being mindful of the requirements and intended purposes of RG 162 and Consultation Paper 104.
Information about ASIC IDS guidelines and other relevant information about investing may be obtained from the ASIC website at:
Not Investment Advice
Postings are, at best, general information, not professional investment advice prepared by taking into account any individual circumstances and needs of particular investors.Therefore, before acting on the basis of what is said in a posting, you should:
- consider consulting a licensed adviser (ASIC’™s website at www.asic.gov.au has a list of licensed advisers); and
- visit ASIC’™s consumer website at www.fido.gov.au for general guidance about investing.
Dalton Nicol Reid, its associated entities, and directors and staff, may hold positions in companies, or the debt or derivative securities of companies, either on their own account or for the portfolios of investors, that are the subjects of postings on this website.
Dalton Nicol Reid is a member of FOS (https://www.fos.org.au/centric/home_page.jsp) which is an ASIC approved external complaints resolution scheme (RG 162.46).
The information posted on this site by Dalton Nicol Reid will be maintained and kept by Dalton Nicol Reid consistent with the requirement of RG 162.62 and* Consultation Paper 104* for a minimum of two years and may be made available to ASIC.
Accuracy and Currency of Information
Dalton Nicol Reid, its officers, employees, agents and associates believe that the information and material provided on this web site is correct at the time of compilation but do not warrant the accuracy or currency of that information and material. You should carefully check the date of compilation of the information and material (where relevant) to determine its currency. Save for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, Dalton Nicol Reid, its officers, employees, agents and associates disclaim all responsibility for any loss or damage which any person may suffer from reliance on the information and material on this web site or any opinion, conclusion or recommendation in the information and material whether the loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence on the part of Dalton Nicol Reid (including its officers, employees, agents and associates) or otherwise.
Loss or Damage to your Systems
Dalton Nicol Reid will not be liable for any loss or damage from any cause to your system or web site, or to people linking to this material from your web site, caused by or in connection with the use or link to this material. Any such loss or damage will be your responsibility. Dalton Nicol Reid advises you to take your own precautions in relation to protecting your system or web site from malfunction or viruses.
Copyright in all the material, works, software, design, text, graphics and code contained on or used to produce the web site and in the information and material and in its arrangement or layout, is owned or licensed by Dalton Nicol Reid or its associates unless otherwise indicated. Other than as permitted below, your use of anything in which Dalton Nicol Reid or its associates own copyright is governed by the copyright laws of Australia and its international treaties with other countries.
You are permitted to save or print a copy of the web site solely for your own information, research or study, but only if you do not modify the copy and you include the copyright notice “© Dalton Nicol Reid Pty Ltd. ” on the copy. You may not copy, publish, distribute, create works from or commercially exploit the content of this web site for any other purpose.